Oil Trade · Preview

Oil Imports by Country

Historical oil import volumes (kb/d) for the world's largest importers, with ARIMA-model forecasts through 2030. Solid = recorded data · Dashed = projection.

Oil · Imports Full Explorer →

Source: IEA Oil Information · ARIMA forecast model Explore with chips & filters →

EV Forecast · Preview

EV Sales Forecast (S-Curve)

Logistic S-curve projections of EV sales by region through 2035 — from early adoption through rapid acceleration to market saturation. Solid = actual · Dashed = modelled forecast.

EV · Forecast Full Explorer →

Model: logistic S-curve · Source: IEA Global EV Outlook Explore by region →

Project goal

Does EV adoption reduce oil dependency?

This dashboard investigates one question using freely available IEA data: as electric vehicle fleets grow, do oil import volumes in non-producing nations measurably decline — and how large could the resulting fiscal dividend be?

EV Growth

Global EV sales have followed a textbook S-curve: slow early uptake through ~2019, then a steep acceleration phase. The EV Share Explorer and Forecast page map this trajectory by country and project it through 2035.

Oil Import Pressure

Light-vehicle transport is the primary consumer of petroleum in most import-dependent nations. As EV penetration rises, per-vehicle fuel demand falls. The Oil Explorer tracks whether this shows up in country-level import volumes.

Infrastructure Dividend

Reduced oil imports free foreign-exchange reserves. At conservative oil-price assumptions, even modest displacement translates to billions of dollars that could be redirected toward electricity grid and clean-energy infrastructure.

Caveats

Oil demand is shaped by industry, heating, and shipping — not just cars. This analysis focuses on light-vehicle transport fuel and should be read as indicative rather than causal. GDP growth and energy-mix shifts are controlled for but not eliminated.

About this project

Methods & Data Sources

All charts draw on freely available IEA datasets. Coverage spans 50+ countries from 1971–2023 for oil trade and 2010–2030 for EV sales, with forecasts extending to 2035.

Data Sources

Oil import/export figures from the IEA Oil Information database. EV sales and market-share data from the IEA Global EV Outlook.

Methodology

Country-level EV market share is compared to year-over-year oil import changes, controlling for GDP growth. Investment estimates apply a conservative oil price to displaced barrels and scale to per-capita grid benchmarks.

Forecast Models

Oil forecasts use Log-ARIMA models fitted to historical IEA data. EV adoption is projected via a logistic S-curve (f(t) = L / (1 + e−k(t−t₀))) fitted by nonlinear least-squares regression.

Contributing

Open project. Chart implementations in ./jsfile/, datasets in ./data/. Pull requests welcome on GitHub.